Bitcoin may currently be undervalued compared to traditional assets like gold and the S&P 500, according to new on-chain data from analytics firm Santiment. The firm highlights a growing divergence between the world’s leading cryptocurrency and these benchmark markets, raising the question of whether Bitcoin is due for a recovery phase.
Bitcoin Falls While Traditional Assets Surge
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Santiment pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance over the past few months has weakened compared to gold and the S&P 500. Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a degree of correlation with these assets, especially during broader market shifts. However, this correlation has significantly faded since mid-2025.
According to Santiment’s data, Bitcoin has declined about 15% since August 11, while gold has climbed 21% and the S&P 500 has gained around 7% during the same period. This divergence indicates that while traditional markets have rallied amid economic stability and inflation hedge demand, Bitcoin has lagged behind.
The analytics firm believes this pattern could suggest that Bitcoin is “arguably undervalued” compared to these other major assets. Given the historical correlation between them, Santiment argues that Bitcoin could eventually “catch up,” narrowing the performance gap.
Gold and the S&P 500 Outperform Bitcoin
Gold’s strong performance this quarter has been driven by rising geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s rally reflects optimism surrounding technology stocks and easing inflation concerns in the United States.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has seen profit-taking from long-term holders and reduced institutional inflows following its record highs earlier this year. Despite this, analysts note that Bitcoin’s fundamentals—such as network activity, long-term holder accumulation, and decreasing exchange reserves—remain strong.
Santiment’s data also points out that Bitcoin’s decoupling from traditional assets could create opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on potential rebounds. Historically, such divergence phases have often preceded periods of strong recovery for Bitcoin once sentiment turns positive again.
Bitcoin Trading Between Key On-Chain Levels
Further supporting this perspective, another on-chain analytics firm, Glassnode, shared insights into Bitcoin’s current trading range based on its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model. This model examines how much of the circulating Bitcoin supply is in profit at specific price levels, helping identify potential zones of support and resistance.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has fallen below two key quantiles following its recent price correction. The cryptocurrency first slipped under the 0.95 quantile, which indicates that more than 95% of the circulating supply was previously in profit when Bitcoin hit its all-time highs. It has also dropped below the 0.85 quantile, corresponding to around 85% supply profitability.
Currently, Glassnode identifies $108,500 as the resistance level aligned with the 0.85 quantile, while the $100,600 mark—representing the 0.75 quantile—acts as a major support zone.
“These levels have historically acted as important inflection points,” Glassnode explained, noting that a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support could define Bitcoin’s next directional trend.
Analysts See Signs of Accumulation
Despite Bitcoin’s muted price action, on-chain data reveals that large investors continue to accumulate. Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC have shown steady inflows, suggesting that whales view current levels as an attractive entry point. This accumulation trend often precedes strong bullish phases in previous market cycles.
Moreover, the broader market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic. While short-term traders have been rotating funds into gold and equities, long-term crypto investors are holding steady. The number of coins that have remained untouched for over a year continues to climb, a signal that holders are waiting for a larger move before taking profits.
Historical Context: Bitcoin’s Rebound Potential
Bitcoin has experienced several similar divergence periods throughout its history. For instance, in mid-2020, the cryptocurrency underperformed both gold and equities before launching into one of its strongest rallies, eventually setting new all-time highs.
If this historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin’s underperformance in late 2025 could serve as a prelude to a renewed uptrend. As Santiment’s report notes, once market sentiment shifts and correlations realign, Bitcoin tends to outperform traditional assets due to its high volatility and speculative appeal.
What to Watch Next
For now, traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $100,000–$101,000 region. Sustained stability in this range could pave the way for a rebound toward $108,500, while a decisive break above this resistance might confirm a short-term bullish reversal.
However, a failure to defend key support could open the door for a further pullback, potentially testing levels near $95,000. Analysts caution that macroeconomic events—such as U.S. inflation data or shifts in risk appetite—could influence Bitcoin’s next major move.
Outlook: Bitcoin May Be Setting Up for a Comeback
Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain robust. Institutional interest continues to grow, and developments in ETF markets, blockchain scalability, and global adoption could support future price appreciation.
Santiment’s observation that Bitcoin is “arguably undervalued” relative to gold and the S&P 500 reinforces the possibility that the cryptocurrency could soon regain lost ground. With major support levels intact and signs of whale accumulation emerging, Bitcoin’s next big move may not be far off.
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