Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin holds gains as Senate Banking advances Clarity Act
Bitcoin remains close to $81,000 in the early hours of Friday, holding most of the rally that followed Thursday’s bipartisan 15-9 Senate Banking Committee vote to advance the Clarity Act. The bill now heads to the full Senate, where it still needs to reconcile with the version the House passed last summer before reaching the President’s desk. Across the board, crypto is capped by a darkening macro setup for risk assets, U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher, the dollar is firming, and the Trump-Xi summit produced no concrete outcome on the Middle East.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin closed May 14 at $81,060 after the Senate Banking Committee approved the Clarity Act. It has retreated slightly since, failing to break above the 200-day moving average. The bill still needs to clear the full Senate, reconcile three versions (Senate Banking, Senate Agriculture, and House), and reach presidential approval. That’s a thornier path than GENIUS faced, but Polymarket traders now assign a 68% probability to the act being signed into law in 2026. The GENIUS Act template is instructive on what to expect. Last March, the Senate committee’s approval produced a 7.5% rally over two weeks before BTC gave back every dollar by early April. The durable rally built in the run-up to the floor votes that followed, not at committee approval itself, and the all-time high of $124,715 came 207 days later, on October 6. Looking at GENIUS’s broader trajectory, the next inflection is the Senate floor vote, not this week’s headline.
What’s setting the price right now is interest rates. The two-year Treasury yield is at 4.05%, the highest level since June 2025, when BTC was trading at $104,000. Until rates pressures ease, the legislative path is a slow-burn driver.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum closed May 14 at $2,282, 22% above where it traded on March 13, 2025, the inverse of Bitcoin’s flat-line setup and a signal that ETH has held its post-GENIUS Act ground while BTC has not. However, ETH still sits 13% below the 200-day SMA at $2,621, the level that has capped every rally since the cycle high turned over, and the $2,400 ceiling flagged by analysts as the breakout threshold has not given way.
The ETF channel has been a source of spot supply rather than demand. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw $186 million in net outflows over the past five sessions with four of five days negative. AUM sits at $13.45 billion, about 35% below the January 14 peak of $20.84 billion.
Macro & Institutional
U.S. equity futures are leaning lower and yields are pushing higher as President Trump’s late-Thursday comment that the U.S. doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all” undercut the brief optimism from Day 1 of the Trump-Xi summit. The bond move is the cleanest read. The 10-year U.S. yield approached 4.52% — a near one-year high — with the 2-year above 4.05%, on inflation-risk repricing, weak T-bill auction demand into rising issuance, and Fed hike bets pushing higher under Warsh. In Japan, the 20-year JGB yield hit its highest level since 1996 after hot producer prices reinforced expectations that the BoJ continues tightening. Oil extended its weekly run, with Brent up 2.9% to $108.75 and WTI 3.2% higher at $104.42 as the Strait remains effectively closed.
The oil market is starting to weigh demand destruction (where high prices push consumers and businesses to use less oil, capping further upside) against escalation risk. But with no summit deliverable on Iran, escalation remains the dominant variable into next week.
Looking Ahead
Hot U.S. inflation data this week pushed hike bets higher and cuts further out as Warsh takes over as Fed Chair today, inheriting a historically divided FOMC. The Trump-Xi summit closed in Beijing without the concrete deliverables markets needed for a narrative shift — a reopening timeline, a ceasefire signal, or a confirmed Chinese oil purchase. Oil’s supply premium holds and pass-through inflation risk remains live into next week.
The next test for investors will be the April FOMC Minutes for how forceful the hawkish dissent was last month. With Warsh potentially more hawkish than Powell, that case carries more weight than the majority’s softer signal. For Bitcoin, this week’s rally capped near $80,900, below the $82,000 200-day moving average. Hawkish Minutes push toward $75,700; dovish ones reopen $82,500.
Author: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author’s as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
