Bitcoin
Derivatives positioning suggested the recent selloff may have been more of a leverage flush than the start of a broader market breakdown. Open interest, a measure of outstanding leveraged futures positions, held relatively steady while funding rates stayed low or negative, a sign that traders were not aggressively piling into bullish bets before the drop.
“There was no massive accumulation of leveraged longs prior to this, meaning most of those liquidated in this drop were leveraged funds attempting short-term bottom-fishing. Second, this signals that we are not in the middle of a structural trend reversal downward. The temporary bottom of $75,000–$77,000 remains well-defined,” Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told CoinDesk
The bigger problem, he said, is macro: investors are de-risking as long-term yields rise, oil and inflation risks remain in focus, and there is “currently no compelling reason for new capital to enter the market.”
CoinGlass data showed $200 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, split almost evenly between long and short positions, suggesting the move was less a one-sided capitulation than a volatile market whipping both directions.
Sun pointed to the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield, which recently pushed above 5%, as the more important pressure point. Higher long-term yields tend to weigh on speculative assets by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin while tightening broader financial conditions.
The next catalyst may come from geopolitics.
Sun said a meaningful de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could cool oil prices and inflation expectations, easing pressure on yields and giving bitcoin room to rebound.
But if yields remain elevated and geopolitical risks persist, bitcoin may stay stuck in what he described as a defensive, range-bound market, with the $75,000 to $77,000 zone serving as the key near-term support level.
