This XRP Signal Has Never Looked Worse, But is That the Setup? (Analyst)

XRP’s historically low MVRV readings suggest much of the downside has already been absorbed.

XRP climbed roughly 5% over the past 24 hours, which helped the token reclaim the $1.10 level. Despite the short-term recovery, it remains down more than 50% compared with its value a year ago.

Fresh on-chain data suggests the prolonged decline has pushed key holder metrics to historically extreme levels.

Lower-Risk Buying Window

According to Santiment, XRP holders are experiencing some of the weakest average returns in the asset’s history. Its 30-day MVRV has fallen to -45%, while its 365-day MVRV stands at -47%, which signals that both short-term and long-term holders are deeply underwater.

For the first time in XRP’s nearly 12-year history, both short- and long-term holders are facing record-low average returns, which demonstrates that fear and frustration have reached unusually high levels. Santiment said this does not rule out the possibility of further price declines if the broader crypto market remains under pressure.

However, from a risk-reward perspective, it believes buying or increasing exposure to XRP now carries less risk than usual because much of the downside has already been absorbed by existing holders, a condition that has historically coincided with stronger market setups.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said the SuperTrend indicator has flashed its first buy signal on XRP since mid-June. He explained that the previous buy signal was followed by a 14% rally, while the indicator also successfully identified the last two major declines of 19% and 16%.

XRP’s network activity has also picked up, according to his earlier analysis. Daily active addresses have increased from 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 40,000, indicating stronger on-chain participation.

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Inflows After Brief Pullback

On the institutional side of things, US-based spot XRP ETFs attracted more than $59 million in net inflows throughout June. After two consecutive days of outflows, the funds returned to positive territory on July 3, bringing in $6.55 million.

Data from SoSoValue revealed that Bitwise’s ETF accounted for the largest share of the day’s inflows.